Info

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast is a mesoscale forecast model, for the United Kingdom, which is utilising the WRF ARW model at a horizontal resolution of 4km. The model output from a 48 hour forecast is made freely available on this website. The ensemble is a time lagged combination of the last three runs (plus the current run), covering a 24 hour forecast period and generating a four member time lagged output.

Model physics include the YSU PBL Scheme, Thompson six-class single moment physics (with double moment ice) and the RRTM/Dudhia radiation schemes. The Kain Fritsch cumulus scheme is in use on the 20km (not shown) parent grid, with convection being resolved explicitly on the 4km nest. A reduced number of vertical levels is in use, this is currently set at 38.

The model is currently run 4x times daily, intiliased from NCEP GFS initial and boundary conditions, with output generally available around 3 hours later.